Atletico Paranaense v Vasco DA Gama: analysis and our pick

Vasco DA Gama have a chance to respond

Atletico Paranaense have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Gremio and a 1–1 away draw with Guimaraes. Vasco DA Gama have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Palmeiras and a 1–4 home defeat to Flamengo.

The head-to-head favours Vasco DA Gama

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 0 draws, 3 for Vasco DA Gama, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense (11 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Atletico Paranaense score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Vasco DA Gama 1.0 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.1 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 75% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Atletico Paranaense · 44%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 75%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Atletico Paranaense have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Atletico Paranaense — last game: Away to Gremio (0-2) they had 45% of the shots (14 to 17, on target 4-5) and 69% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 3 for opponents. Vasco DA Gama — last game: Away to Palmeiras (0-1) they had 24% of the shots (6 to 19, on target 1-4) and 40% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 77′ for Vasco DA Gama (Alan Saldivia): they played with ten for ~13 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 80% of the pressure → conceded on 24′. 60′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 58% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.75 → 3.00 (+9.1%, drifting) · Under 1.5 4.33 → 4.00 (-7.6%, backed) · Not both to score 2.20 → 2.10 (-4.5%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.73 → 1.80 (+4%, drifting).