Anderlecht v Red Bull Salzburg: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 19:45 · Lotto Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Anderlecht looking for a response
Anderlecht have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over KVC Westerlo and a 0–4 away defeat at Gent. Red Bull Salzburg have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 5–1 home win over Austria Lustenau and a 3–2 away win at Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 45%. Anderlecht score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game, Red Bull Salzburg 3.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Anderlecht · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Anderlecht have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Anderlecht — last game: Against KVC Westerlo (4-1) they had 65% of the shots (22 to 12, on target 8-4) and 55% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 61% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red Bull Salzburg — last game: Against Austria Lustenau (5-1) they had 74% of the shots (31 to 11, on target 10-5) and 66% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 77% of the pressure → goal on 12′. 15′–30′: pressed with 84% of the pressure → goal on 27′. 30′–45′: pressed with 93% of the pressure → goal on 35′. Over the last 4 they averaged 60% of the shots and 65% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.