AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 5 November 19:45 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
AC Milan in good form
AC Milan have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Inter and a 2–4 home defeat to Bologna. Ferencvarosi TC have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Paks and a 4–1 away win at Bicskei.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 100%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. AC Milan score 2.0 and concede 2.0 a game, Ferencvarosi TC 3.2 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 2.3 = 3.5 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 88% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Ferencvarosi TC · 60%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 68%). Most likely score: 1–2.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 88%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 100%. In 1X2: Ferencvarosi TC have the highest probability (60%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 68% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
AC Milan — last game: Against Inter (3-1) they had 27% of the shots (7 to 19, on target 4-8) and 43% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 34% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Ferencvarosi TC — last game: Against Paks (2-0) they had 79% of the shots (26 to 7, on target 9-1) and 60% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 91% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 91% of the pressure → goal on 59′. Over the last 4 they averaged 79% of the shots and 82% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 4). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.