Aarhus v Braga: analysis and our pick

Braga have a chance to respond

Aarhus have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Brondby and a 2–1 away win at Roskilde. Braga have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Famalicao and a 2–2 home draw with Famalicao.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Aarhus score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game, Braga 1.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.2 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 72% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Aarhus · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 72%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Aarhus have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Aarhus — last game: Away to Brondby (0-2) they had 53% of the shots (16 to 14, on target 1-4) and 52% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 73% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: under 69% of the pressure → conceded on 82′. Over the last 4 they averaged 46% of the shots and 30% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Braga — last game: Against Famalicao (3-0) they had 79% of the shots (15 to 4, on target 4-1) and 59% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 🟥 Red card on 70′ for Famalicao (Rodrigo Pinheiro): the opponent played with ten for ~20 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 70% of the shots and 66% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Aarhus) 3.60 → 3.80 (+5.6%, drifting) · Not both to score 1.83 → 1.91 (+4.4%, drifting) · 2 (Braga) 2.00 → 1.95 (-2.5%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.28 → 1.25 (-2.3%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.