Wrexham v Middlesbrough: analysis and our pick

Wrexham looking for a response

Wrexham have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Sheffield Utd and a 0–2 away defeat at Blackburn. Middlesbrough have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Charlton and a 5–1 away win at Bolton.

The head-to-head favours Middlesbrough

In the last 3 meetings: 0 wins for Wrexham, 2 draws, 1 for Middlesbrough, with 2.3 goals a game. Most recently: Middlesbrough 1–0 Wrexham (7 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 55%. Wrexham score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game, Middlesbrough 2.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.7 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Middlesbrough · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 59%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Middlesbrough have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 59% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Wrexham — last game: Away to Sheffield Utd (0-1) they had 41% of the shots (9 to 13, on target 1-4) and 45% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Middlesbrough — last game: Against Charlton (3-0) they had 70% of the shots (16 to 7, on target 6-0) and 58% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 3, faced no shots on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 12′. 30′–45′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → goal on 44′. 60′–75′: pressed with 91% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 72% of the shots and 82% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.