Viking v Sabah FA: analysis and our pick

Sabah FA have a chance to respond

Viking have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Bodo/Glimt and a 3–1 home win over Tromso. Sabah FA have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Turan and a 0–0 home draw with Qarabag.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 50%. Viking score 2.4 and concede 2.4 a game, Sabah FA 1.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.8 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Viking · 41%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Viking have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Viking — last game: Away to Bodo/Glimt (2-3) they had 59% of the shots (17 to 12, on target 5-3) and 60% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 3 on target. 🟥 Red card on 45′ for Viking (Morten Jensen): they played with ten for ~45 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 🟥 Red card on 45′ for Bodo/Glimt (Kjetil Knutsen): the opponent played with ten for ~45 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 57% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 46% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents. Sabah FA — last game: Against Borussia Dortmund (1-2) they had 37% of the shots (13 to 22, on target 4-9). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 9 on target. Over the last 3 they averaged 38% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target. They turn 70% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 12% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Sabah FA) 6.50 → 7.00 (+7.7%, drifting) · Under 2.5 3.20 → 3.40 (+6.2%, drifting) · Over 3.5 1.91 → 1.80 (-5.8%, backed) · X (draw) 5.00 → 5.25 (+5%, drifting).