Trostianets v Metalurh Zaporizhya: analysis and our pick
Druha Liga · today 10:30. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Trostianets looking for a response
Trostianets have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Karbon Cherkasy and a 1–1 home draw with Atlet. Metalurh Zaporizhya have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Rebel and a 0–2 away defeat at Penuel.
The head-to-head favours Metalurh Zaporizhya
In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Trostianets, 0 draws, 1 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, with 1.0 goals a game. Most recently: Metalurh Zaporizhya 1–0 Trostianets (23 Aug 2021).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Trostianets score 1.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Metalurh Zaporizhya 1.0 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.0 = 2.1 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 64% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Trostianets · 37%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 64%: the model expects 2.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Trostianets have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.