Tauras v Minija: analysis and our pick
1 Lyga · today 14:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Minija have a chance to respond
Tauras have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Ekranas and a 1–2 home defeat to Be1 NFA. Minija have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Atmosfera and a 1–2 away defeat at BFA.
The head-to-head favours Tauras
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Tauras, 1 draw, 1 for Minija, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Minija 2–1 Tauras (23 May 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 65%. Tauras score 2.0 and concede 2.0 a game, Minija 2.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.6 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Minija · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Minija have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Tauras — last game: Away to Ekranas (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Minija — last game: Against Atmosfera (3-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 Red card on 66′ for Atmosfera: the opponent played with ten for ~24 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Tauras) 6.00 → 6.50 (+8.3%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.50 → 2.38 (-4.8%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.50 → 1.53 (+2%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.