Sporting San Jose v Perez Zeledon: analysis and our pick

Sporting San Jose in good form

Sporting San Jose have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over CS Herediano and a 4–2 away win at Escorpiones Belén. Perez Zeledon have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Puntarenas FC and a 0–1 away defeat at LD Alajuelense.

The head-to-head favours Sporting San Jose

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Sporting San Jose, 2 draws, 1 for Perez Zeledon, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Perez Zeledon 1–2 Sporting San Jose (19 Sept 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Sporting San Jose score 2.2 and concede 2.4 a game, Perez Zeledon 0.6 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.1 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Sporting San Jose · 54%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Sporting San Jose have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Perez Zeledon — last game: Away to Inter San Carlos (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Perez Zeledon) 6.50 → 7.00 (+7.7%, drifting) · Double chance X2 2.62 → 2.75 (+5%, drifting) · Not both to score 1.91 → 1.83 (-4.2%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.12 → 1.10 (-1.8%, backed).