Sparta Praha II v Viktoria Plzeň II: analysis and our pick

Viktoria Plzeň II have a chance to respond

Sparta Praha II have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Králův Dvůr and a 0–1 home defeat to Písek. Viktoria Plzeň II have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Benešov and a 4–1 away win at Jiskra Domažlice.

The head-to-head favours Sparta Praha II

In the last 1 meetings: 1 win for Sparta Praha II, 0 draws, 0 for Viktoria Plzeň II, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Viktoria Plzeň II 0–2 Sparta Praha II (6 Nov 2019).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 50%. Sparta Praha II score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game, Viktoria Plzeň II 3.0 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.8 = 3.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Viktoria Plzeň II · 41%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 68%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Viktoria Plzeň II have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 68% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 2.25 → 1.80 (-20%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.14 → 1.30 (+14%, drifting) · 2 (Viktoria Plzeň II) 3.20 → 3.10 (-3.1%, backed) · Double chance 12 1.14 → 1.17 (+2.6%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.