Somaspor v Sebat Gençlikspor: analysis and our pick

Somaspor looking for a response

Somaspor have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Çorluspor 1947 and a 0–0 away draw with Fatih Karagumruk. Sebat Gençlikspor have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 away win at Ankaraspor and a 4–1 away win at İnegölspor.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 70%. Somaspor score 0.4 and concede 2.2 a game, Sebat Gençlikspor 2.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 2.0 = 3.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Sebat Gençlikspor · 49%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Sebat Gençlikspor have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Somaspor — last game: Against Çorluspor 1947 (0-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 4 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 4. Sebat Gençlikspor — last game: Away to Ankaraspor (3-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 4 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents.