Slavia Praha v Arsenal: analysis and our pick

Arsenal have a chance to respond

Slavia Praha have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 5–0 away win at FK Jablonec and a 4–0 home win over Zbrojovka Brno. Arsenal have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Liverpool and a 1–1 away draw with Fleetwood Town.

The head-to-head favours Arsenal

In the last 3 meetings: 0 wins for Slavia Praha, 1 draw, 2 for Arsenal, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Slavia Praha 0–3 Arsenal (4 Nov 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 40%. Slavia Praha score 2.4 and concede 0.6 a game, Arsenal 1.4 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.7 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 81% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Arsenal · 49%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 81%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Arsenal have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Slavia Praha — last game: Away to FK Jablonec (5-0) they had 59% of the shots (16 to 11, on target 9-1) and 56% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 41′. 45′–61′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → goal on 57′. 61′–75′: pressed with 85% of the pressure → goal on 66′, 75′. Over the last 4 they averaged 68% of the shots and 73% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Arsenal — last game: Away to Liverpool (1-0) they had 37% of the shots (10 to 17, on target 3-0) and 44% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, faced no shots on target. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Slavia Praha) 9.50 → 12.00 (+26.3%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.30 → 2.75 (+19.6%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.95 → 2.25 (+15.4%, drifting) · Under 1.5 5.00 → 4.33 (-13.4%, backed).