Rukinzo v Inter Star: analysis and our pick

Rukinzo looking for a response

Rukinzo have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Royal Vision and a 1–0 home win over Aigle Noir. Inter Star have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Olympic Star and a 1–1 away draw with Royal Vision.

The head-to-head favours Rukinzo

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Rukinzo, 2 draws, 0 for Inter Star, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Inter Star 2–2 Rukinzo (19 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Rukinzo score 1.0 and concede 1.0 a game, Inter Star 1.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 0.9 = 2.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 74% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Rukinzo · 51%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 74%: the model expects 2.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Rukinzo have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Rukinzo — last game: Against Durban City (1-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.