Rudar v Lovćen: analysis and our pick

Lovćen have a chance to respond

Rudar have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Jedinstvo and a 1–1 home draw with Mladost Lješkopolje. Lovćen have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Grbalj and a 1–2 away defeat at Kom.

The head-to-head favours Lovćen

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Rudar, 0 draws, 3 for Lovćen, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Lovćen 2–4 Rudar (16 Sept 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Rudar score 0.8 and concede 1.0 a game, Lovćen 1.6 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Rudar · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Rudar have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Rudar — last game: Against Zeta (3-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.