Real Cartagena v Quindio: analysis and our pick
Primera B · today 03:30. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Quindio have a chance to respond
Real Cartagena have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Tigres FC and a 1–1 away draw with Barranquilla. Quindio have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Real Cundinamarca and a 2–0 home win over Tigres FC.
The head-to-head favours Real Cartagena
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Real Cartagena, 2 draws, 1 for Quindio, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Quindio 1–1 Real Cartagena (16 Oct 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 35%, both teams scored 50%. Real Cartagena score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game, Quindio 1.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.1 = 2.4 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 71% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Real Cartagena · 40%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 71%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Real Cartagena have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Real Cartagena — last game: Against Patriotas (3-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Quindio — last game: Away to Barranquilla (1-4) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Quindio) 4.75 → 4.10 (-13.7%, backed) · Over 2.5 2.08 → 2.35 (+13%, drifting) · 1 (Real Cartagena) 1.75 → 1.95 (+11.4%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.60 → 3.25 (-9.7%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.