RB Leipzig v Manchester City: analysis and our pick

RB Leipzig in good form

RB Leipzig have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Schalke 04 and a 2–1 away win at Rot-Weiß Essen. Manchester City have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Brighton and a 2–2 home draw with Brighton.

The head-to-head favours Manchester City

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for RB Leipzig, 1 draw, 3 for Manchester City, with 4.2 goals a game. Most recently: Manchester City 3–2 RB Leipzig (28 Nov 2023).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 50%. RB Leipzig score 2.0 and concede 2.2 a game, Manchester City 2.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 2.2 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 91% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Manchester City · 48%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 74%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 91%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Manchester City have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 74% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

RB Leipzig — last game: Away to Schalke 04 (2-0) they had 75% of the shots (18 to 6, on target 10-1) and 60% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 37% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Manchester City — last game: Against Brighton (0-1) they had 74% of the shots (20 to 7, on target 5-3) and 62% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 0′–15′: under 80% of the pressure → conceded on 11′. 15′–30′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 7.00 → 8.00 (+14.3%, drifting) · Under 2.5 3.20 → 3.50 (+9.4%, drifting) · Over 3.5 1.91 → 1.80 (-5.8%, backed) · Not both to score 2.62 → 2.75 (+5%, drifting).