PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge KV: analysis and our pick

Club Brugge KV have a chance to respond

PSV Eindhoven have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 7–0 home win over Willem II and a 1–1 home draw with Feyenoord. Club Brugge KV have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–2 away win at Zulte Waregem and a 3–2 home win over St. Truiden.

The head-to-head favours Club Brugge KV

In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 draw, 1 for Club Brugge KV, with 2.5 goals a game. Most recently: PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Club Brugge KV (13 Jul 2024).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. PSV Eindhoven score 2.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Club Brugge KV 3.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.9 = 3.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 88% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Club Brugge KV · 41%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 69%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 88%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Club Brugge KV have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 69% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

PSV Eindhoven — last game: Against Willem II (7-0) they had 83% of the shots (20 to 4, on target 9-1) and 70% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 7, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 20′. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 44′. 45′–60′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → goal on 50′, 53′. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 16% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Club Brugge KV — last game: Away to Zulte Waregem (4-2) they had 65% of the shots (13 to 7, on target 8-3) and 74% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 95% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 59′. 60′–75′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 43% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 67% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Club Brugge KV) 3.00 → 3.25 (+8.3%, drifting) · Not both to score 3.25 → 3.00 (-7.7%, backed) · 1 (PSV Eindhoven) 2.00 → 1.95 (-2.5%, backed) · Both teams score 1.33 → 1.36 (+2.3%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.