Philippine Army v Azkals: analysis and our pick

Philippine Army looking for a response

Philippine Army have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 2–4 home defeat to Stallion and a 0–5 away defeat at Maharlika. Azkals have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–4 home defeat to Davao Aguilas and a 1–1 home draw with Mendiola.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 100%, Over 2.5 85%, both teams scored 70%. Philippine Army score 1.2 and concede 5.2 a game, Azkals 0.6 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 2.9 = 4.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 95% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Azkals · 63%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 84%). Most likely score: 1–2.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 95%: the model expects 4.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 100%. In 1X2: Azkals have the highest probability (63%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 84% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (7%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Azkals — last game: Against Davao Aguilas (0-4) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Philippine Army) 3.30 → 6.00 (+81.8%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.95 → 2.88 (+47.7%, drifting) · 2 (Azkals) 1.70 → 1.33 (-21.8%, backed) · X (draw) 4.33 → 5.00 (+15.5%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.