Osaka v Roasso Kumamoto: analysis and our pick

Roasso Kumamoto have a chance to respond

Osaka have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at FC Gifu and a 2–1 home win over Kagoshima United. Roasso Kumamoto have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Kagoshima United and a 2–1 home win over FC Gifu.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 45%. Osaka score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game, Roasso Kumamoto 1.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.3 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 75% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Osaka · 37%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 75%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Osaka have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Osaka — last game: Against Kagoshima United (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Roasso Kumamoto — last game: Against Ehime FC (0-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Roasso Kumamoto) 3.00 → 3.20 (+6.7%, drifting) · 1 (Osaka) 2.20 → 2.10 (-4.5%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.