Mogren v Berane: analysis and our pick
Second League · today 14:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Berane have a chance to respond
Mogren have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Zeta and a 4–3 away win at Iskra. Berane have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Kom and a 2–5 away defeat at Zeta.
An even head-to-head
In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Mogren, 1 draw, 0 for Berane, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Berane 1–1 Mogren (16 Sept 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. Mogren score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game, Berane 1.0 and 3.8. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.2 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 85% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Mogren · 58%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 85%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Mogren have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.