Mingəçevir v Şahdağ: analysis and our pick
Birinci Dasta · today 13:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Mingəçevir looking for a response
Mingəçevir have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Qabala and a 1–0 away win at Xankəndi FK. Şahdağ have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 9–1 away win at MOIK and a 1–0 home win over Səbail.
The head-to-head favours Şahdağ
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Mingəçevir, 2 draws, 2 for Şahdağ, with 1.6 goals a game. Most recently: Şahdağ 2–0 Mingəçevir (5 May 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. Mingəçevir score 0.4 and concede 2.6 a game, Şahdağ 4.0 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 2.2 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Şahdağ · 64%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Şahdağ have the highest probability (64%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Mingəçevir) 5.75 → 21.00 (+265.2%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.20 → 8.00 (+90.5%, drifting) · 2 (Şahdağ) 1.42 → 1.10 (-22.5%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.25 → 2.75 (+22.2%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.