Melbourne Victory v Persib Bandung: analysis and our pick

Persib Bandung have a chance to respond

Melbourne Victory have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Central Coast Mariners and a 0–2 away defeat at Persib Bandung. Persib Bandung have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over Isenmulang Kalteng and a 2–0 home win over Melbourne Victory.

The head-to-head favours Persib Bandung

In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Melbourne Victory, 0 draws, 1 for Persib Bandung, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Persib Bandung 2–0 Melbourne Victory (28 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 35%, both teams scored 50%. Melbourne Victory score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game, Persib Bandung 1.8 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.3 = 2.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 66% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Persib Bandung · 44%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 66%: the model expects 2.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Persib Bandung have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Melbourne Victory — last game: Away to Persib Bandung (0-2) they had 50% of the shots (13 to 13, on target 1-5) and 57% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 53% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Persib Bandung — last game: Against Melbourne Victory (2-0) they had 50% of the shots (13 to 13, on target 5-1) and 43% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 50% of the shots and 83% of the shots on target. They turn 80% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 100% of theirs. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Persib Bandung) 3.50 → 3.20 (-8.6%, backed) · 1 (Melbourne Victory) 1.85 → 1.95 (+5.4%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.50 → 3.60 (+2.9%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.80 → 1.85 (+2.8%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.