Lens v Como: analysis and our pick
UEFA Champions League · today 22:00 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Lens looking for a response
Lens have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Lille and a 2–1 home win over Paris FC. Como have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Venezia and a 3–1 away win at Torino.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Lens score 1.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Como 2.6 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 2.2 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Como · 58%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Como have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Lens — last game: Away to Lille (0-1) they had 24% of the shots (5 to 16, on target 3-7) and 38% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 7 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 89% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 77% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 23% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Como — last game: Against Venezia (1-0) they had 73% of the shots (19 to 7, on target 4-1) and 66% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 65% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 18% of theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Lens) 3.00 → 3.60 (+20%, drifting) · 2 (Como) 2.20 → 1.91 (-13.2%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.67 → 1.80 (+7.8%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.36 → 1.28 (-5.9%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.