Leningradets v Ska-khabarovsk: analysis and our pick
Cup · today 13:00 · Roshchino Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Ska-khabarovsk have a chance to respond
Leningradets have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Enisey and a 1–1 away draw with FK Neftekhimik. Ska-khabarovsk have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at FK Neftekhimik and a 3–0 home win over Enisey.
The head-to-head favours Ska-khabarovsk
In the last 3 meetings: 1 win for Leningradets, 0 draws, 2 for Ska-khabarovsk, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Leningradets 3–2 Ska-khabarovsk (5 Sept 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Leningradets score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Ska-khabarovsk 2.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.5 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Ska-khabarovsk · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Ska-khabarovsk have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Leningradets — last game: Against Enisey (3-0) they had 50% of the shots (10 to 10, on target 4-2) and 50% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 67% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Ska-khabarovsk — last game: Away to FK Neftekhimik (2-0) they had 36% of the shots (4 to 7, on target 2-3) and 60% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 75′–90′: under 65% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 61% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.