Kyustendil v Strumska Slava: analysis and our pick
Third League - Southwest · today 14:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Strumska Slava have a chance to respond
Kyustendil have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Slavia Sofia II and a 1–0 home win over Botev Ihtiman. Strumska Slava have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Levski Sofia II and a 1–1 away draw with Slavia Sofia II.
An even head-to-head
In the last 2 meetings: 1 win for Kyustendil, 0 draws, 1 for Strumska Slava, with 3.5 goals a game. Most recently: Strumska Slava 3–1 Kyustendil (28 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Kyustendil score 1.0 and concede 1.0 a game, Strumska Slava 1.6 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.2 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 75% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Kyustendil · 38%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 75%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Kyustendil have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Kyustendil — last game: Away to Slavia Sofia II (2-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.