Kortrijk v KV Mechelen: analysis and our pick
Jupiler Pro League · tomorrow 21:30 · Guldensporen Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
KV Mechelen have a chance to respond
Kortrijk have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Standard Liege and a 0–3 away defeat at Genk. KV Mechelen have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Genk and a 5–1 home win over AS Eupen.
The head-to-head favours KV Mechelen
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Kortrijk, 0 draws, 4 for KV Mechelen, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Kortrijk 3–1 KV Mechelen (29 Nov 2024).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 40%. Kortrijk score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game, KV Mechelen 2.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.6 = 2.7 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 76% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · KV Mechelen · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 50%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 76%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: KV Mechelen have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 50% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Kortrijk — last game: Away to Standard Liege (1-1) they had 43% of the shots (12 to 16, on target 5-6) and 40% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 49% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 37% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. KV Mechelen — last game: Against Genk (1-0) they had 33% of the shots (8 to 16, on target 3-5) and 44% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 45′–60′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 120% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 58% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.