Kluczevia Stargard v Lech Poznań II: analysis and our pick
III Liga - Group 2 · today 13:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Lech Poznań II have a chance to respond
Kluczevia Stargard have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Kotwica Kórnik and a 2–2 home draw with Flota Świnoujście. Lech Poznań II have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 8–1 home win over Flota Świnoujście and a 4–2 away win at Luzino.
An even head-to-head
In the last 2 meetings: 1 win for Kluczevia Stargard, 0 draws, 1 for Lech Poznań II, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Kluczevia Stargard 1–0 Lech Poznań II (7 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 75%. Kluczevia Stargard score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game, Lech Poznań II 3.8 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 2.0 = 4.0 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 92% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Lech Poznań II · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 92%: the model expects 4.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Lech Poznań II have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Kluczevia Stargard — last game: Against Luzino (3-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Luzino). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Lech Poznań II — last game: Away to Luzino (4-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Kluczevia Stargard) 2.10 → 2.50 (+19%, drifting) · 2 (Lech Poznań II) 2.62 → 2.25 (-14.1%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.60 → 1.44 (-10%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.40 → 1.53 (+9.3%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.