Java United v Bekasi City: analysis and our pick

Java United in good form

Java United have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Bhayangkara FC and a 1–1 away draw with Persijap. Bekasi City have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with PSPS and a 1–1 home draw with Sumsel United.

An even head-to-head

In the last 4 meetings: 1 win for Java United, 2 draws, 1 for Bekasi City, with 2.5 goals a game. Most recently: Java United 2–0 Bekasi City (23 Jan 2024).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 70%. Java United score 1.8 and concede 1.0 a game, Bekasi City 1.2 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.3 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 77% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Java United · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 77%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Java United have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bekasi City — last game: Away to Persiraja Banda Aceh (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.