Internacional v Coritiba: analysis and our pick

Coritiba have a chance to respond

Internacional have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Fluminense and a 3–0 home win over Botafogo. Coritiba have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Guimaraes and a 0–1 home defeat to Gremio.

The head-to-head favours Internacional

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Internacional, 2 draws, 1 for Coritiba, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Coritiba 2–2 Internacional (9 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Internacional score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Coritiba 0.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.0 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 76% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Internacional · 50%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 50%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 76%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Internacional have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 50% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Internacional — last game: Away to Fluminense (1-2) they had 45% of the shots (13 to 16, on target 5-6) and 24% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 0′–63′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 46′. 63′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Coritiba — last game: Against Guimaraes (2-0) they had 77% of the shots (20 to 6, on target 7-1) and 51% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 93% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 93% of the pressure → goal on 69′. 75′–90′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 18% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: X (draw) 3.80 → 4.10 (+7.9%, drifting) · Under 1.5 3.75 → 4.00 (+6.7%, drifting) · Over 3.5 3.20 → 3.00 (-6.3%, backed) · Both teams score 1.91 → 1.80 (-5.8%, backed).