Grbalj v Kom: analysis and our pick

Kom have a chance to respond

Grbalj have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Lovćen and a 0–7 home defeat to Jedinstvo. Kom have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Berane and a 2–1 home win over Lovćen.

The head-to-head favours Grbalj

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Grbalj, 1 draw, 1 for Kom, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Kom 0–2 Grbalj (16 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 65%. Grbalj score 1.2 and concede 2.6 a game, Kom 1.6 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.6 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Kom · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Kom have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kom — last game: Against Mladost Lješkopolje (3-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.