Fenerbahce U19 v Liverpool U19: analysis and our pick

Fenerbahce U19 looking for a response

Fenerbahce U19 have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Galatasaray U19 and a 1–3 home defeat to Slavia Praha U19. Liverpool U19 have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Villarreal U19 and a 4–2 away win at LASK U19.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 65%. Fenerbahce U19 score 2.0 and concede 1.8 a game, Liverpool U19 1.4 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 1.8 = 3.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 91% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Fenerbahce U19 · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 75%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 91%: the model expects 3.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Fenerbahce U19 have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 75% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Liverpool U19 — last game: Against Villarreal U19 (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Fenerbahce U19) 4.00 → 2.88 (-28%, backed) · 2 (Liverpool U19) 1.50 → 1.90 (+26.7%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 2.30 → 1.70 (-26.1%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.17 → 1.36 (+16.2%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.