Fenerbahce v Liverpool: analysis and our pick

Fenerbahce looking for a response

Fenerbahce have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Goztepe and a 1–2 away defeat at Galatasaray. Liverpool have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Arsenal and a 1–1 home draw with Chelsea.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 45%. Fenerbahce score 1.4 and concede 2.4 a game, Liverpool 1.8 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 2.6 = 4.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 93% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Liverpool · 57%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 79%). Most likely score: 1–2.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 93%: the model expects 4.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Liverpool have the highest probability (57%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Fenerbahce — last game: Against Goztepe (1-2) they had 56% of the shots (15 to 12, on target 5-6) and 66% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 82% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 76′, 78′. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Liverpool — last game: Against Arsenal (0-1) they had 63% of the shots (17 to 10, on target 0-3) and 56% possession. No shots on target, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 89% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.