FC Porto v Napoli: analysis and our pick

FC Porto in good form

FC Porto have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over Estoril and a 1–0 home win over Academico Viseu. Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Juventus and a 4–1 away win at Monza.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. FC Porto score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game, Napoli 2.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.5 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · FC Porto · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: FC Porto have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

FC Porto — last game: Against Estoril (4-0) they had 77% of the shots (24 to 7, on target 11-0) and 66% possession. From 11 shots on target they scored 4, faced no shots on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 54% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Napoli — last game: Away to Juventus (0-2) they had 28% of the shots (7 to 18, on target 1-4) and 51% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 75′ for Napoli (Luca Marianucci): they played with ten for ~15 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Napoli) 3.75 → 4.00 (+6.7%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.80 → 1.91 (+6.1%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.60 → 3.70 (+2.8%, drifting) · 1 (FC Porto) 1.95 → 1.90 (-2.6%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.