Cardiff v West Ham: analysis and our pick
Championship · tomorrow 21:45 · Cardiff City Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
West Ham have a chance to respond
Cardiff have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Wolves and a 1–0 home win over Birmingham. West Ham have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to West Brom and a 2–3 home defeat to Southampton.
The head-to-head favours West Ham
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Cardiff, 0 draws, 4 for West Ham, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Cardiff 2–0 West Ham (9 Mar 2019).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 60%. Cardiff score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game, West Ham 2.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.9 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · West Ham · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: West Ham have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Cardiff — last game: Away to Wolves (0-3) they had 50% of the shots (13 to 13, on target 9-4) and 61% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. West Ham — last game: Against West Brom (1-3) they had 54% of the shots (14 to 12, on target 5-3) and 55% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 3 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 70% of the pressure → conceded on 20′, scored on the break on 29′. 60′–75′: under 67% of the pressure → conceded on 72′. Over the last 5 they averaged 66% of the shots and 73% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 54% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.