Bristol City v Wolves: analysis and our pick

Wolves have a chance to respond

Bristol City have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–2 away win at Bolton and a 0–0 away draw with Stoke City. Wolves have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Cardiff and a 1–0 home win over Watford.

The head-to-head favours Wolves

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Bristol City, 1 draw, 3 for Wolves, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Bristol City 1–2 Wolves (11 Jan 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 50%, Over 2.5 35%, both teams scored 40%. Bristol City score 0.8 and concede 1.0 a game, Wolves 1.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.4 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 72% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Wolves · 42%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 72%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 50%. In 1X2: Wolves have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bristol City — last game: Away to Bolton (3-2) they had 41% of the shots (13 to 19, on target 8-6) and 35% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 79% of the pressure → conceded on 57′. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Wolves — last game: Against Cardiff (3-0) they had 50% of the shots (13 to 13, on target 4-9) and 39% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, the defence faced 9 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 65% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 3.40 → 3.20 (-5.9%, backed) · 1 (Bristol City) 3.40 → 3.25 (-4.4%, backed) · 2 (Wolves) 2.05 → 2.10 (+2.4%, drifting) · Under 3.5 1.33 → 1.36 (+2.3%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.