Botev Ihtiman v Oborishte: analysis and our pick

Botev Ihtiman looking for a response

Botev Ihtiman have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Belasitsa and a 0–1 away defeat at Kyustendil. Oborishte have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Slivnishki geroy and a 2–0 away win at Levski Sofia II.

The head-to-head favours Oborishte

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Botev Ihtiman, 2 draws, 2 for Oborishte, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Oborishte 0–2 Botev Ihtiman (4 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Botev Ihtiman score 0.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Oborishte 1.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.7 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Oborishte · 50%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Oborishte have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Botev Ihtiman — last game: Against Belasitsa (1-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Oborishte — last game: Away to Slivnishki geroy (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..