Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis: analysis and our pick

Borussia Dortmund in good form

Borussia Dortmund have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Bayern Munich and a 3–2 home win over Werder Bremen. Real Betis have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Malaga and a 0–0 away draw with Celta Vigo.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Borussia Dortmund score 1.6 and concede 1.0 a game, Real Betis 1.6 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.5 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Borussia Dortmund · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Borussia Dortmund have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Borussia Dortmund — last game: Away to Bayern Munich (2-2) they had 34% of the shots (12 to 23, on target 6-5) and 44% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 38′. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Real Betis — last game: Against Malaga (2-1) they had 69% of the shots (22 to 10, on target 6-4) and 59% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 5.00 → 5.50 (+10%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.38 → 2.50 (+5%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting) · 2 (Real Betis) 4.33 → 4.20 (-3%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.