Alianza Lima v Cienciano: analysis and our pick

Alianza Lima in good form

Alianza Lima have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Sporting Cristal and a 1–0 away win at UCV Moquegua. Cienciano have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Atletico Grau and a 1–3 away defeat at Comerciantes Unidos.

The head-to-head favours Cienciano

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Alianza Lima, 0 draws, 3 for Cienciano, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Cienciano 0–1 Alianza Lima (17 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Alianza Lima score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Cienciano 1.6 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.2 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 77% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Alianza Lima · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 77%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Alianza Lima have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Alianza Lima — last game: Away to Sporting Cristal (2-3) they had 47% of the shots (16 to 18, on target 6-7) and 39% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 7 on target. 0′–15′: under 92% of the pressure → conceded on 5′. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → goal on 24′. 30′–45′: pressed with 73% of the pressure → goal on 42′, conceded on 45′. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 54% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Cienciano — last game: Against Atletico Grau (3-0) they had 80% of the shots (20 to 5, on target 5-0) and 64% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, faced no shots on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 53′. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 73′. Over the last 5 they averaged 66% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 28% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Cienciano) 7.50 → 6.00 (-20%, backed) · X (draw) 4.20 → 5.00 (+19%, drifting) · Double chance X2 2.75 → 3.00 (+9.1%, drifting) · Under 1.5 4.00 → 4.33 (+8.3%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.