AEK Athens v Real Madrid: analysis and our pick

AEK Athens looking for a response

AEK Athens have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Panathinaikos and a 1–3 away defeat at PAOK. Real Madrid have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–0 away win at Racing Santander and a 2–1 away win at Barcelona.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 70%. AEK Athens score 1.6 and concede 2.6 a game, Real Madrid 3.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 2.4 = 4.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 93% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Real Madrid · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 78%). Most likely score: 1–2.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 93%: the model expects 4.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Real Madrid have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

AEK Athens — last game: Away to Panathinaikos (0-2) they had 48% of the shots (15 to 16, on target 2-3) and 60% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 🟥 Red card on 70′ for Panathinaikos (Kings Kangwa): the opponent played with ten for ~20 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 80% of the pressure → conceded on 1′. 30′–45′: under 69% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 49′. Over the last 4 they averaged 55% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 59% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Real Madrid — last game: Away to Racing Santander (3-0) they had 70% of the shots (21 to 9, on target 7-1) and 54% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 91% of the pressure → goal on 11′. 30′–45′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → goal on 36′. 45′–60′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.