West Brom v Southampton: analysis and our pick

West Brom in good form

West Brom have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at West Ham and a 1–1 away draw with Preston. Southampton have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over QPR and a 3–2 away win at West Ham.

The head-to-head favours Southampton

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for West Brom, 2 draws, 3 for Southampton, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: West Brom 1–1 Southampton (11 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 65%. West Brom score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Southampton 1.8 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.4 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 76% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Southampton · 37%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 76%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Southampton have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

West Brom — last game: Away to West Ham (3-1) they had 46% of the shots (12 to 14, on target 3-5) and 45% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 70% of the pressure → goal on 20′, conceded on 29′. 60′–75′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → goal on 72′. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Southampton — last game: Against QPR (4-1) they had 61% of the shots (19 to 12, on target 9-2) and 54% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 45′–60′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → goal on 55′. 60′–75′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → goal on 66′, conceded on 68′. 75′–90′: pressed with 91% of the pressure → goal on 90′. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 14% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.62 → 3.40 (+29.8%, drifting) · Under 1.5 4.50 → 3.75 (-16.7%, backed) · Not both to score 2.38 → 2.00 (-16%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.67 → 1.91 (+14.4%, drifting).