Shirak II v Ararat-Armenia II: analysis and our pick
First League · yesterday 13:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Shirak II looking for a response
Shirak II have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–5 away defeat at Lernayin Artsakh and a 3–4 home defeat to BKMA II. Ararat-Armenia II have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–3 home draw with Ararat II and a 1–3 away defeat at Araks Ararat.
The head-to-head favours Shirak II
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Shirak II, 2 draws, 0 for Ararat-Armenia II, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Ararat-Armenia II 1–1 Shirak II (31 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Shirak II score 1.4 and concede 2.8 a game, Ararat-Armenia II 1.8 and 3.0. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.7 = 3.5 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Shirak II · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 68%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Shirak II have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 68% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.