Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP: analysis and our pick

Shakhtar Donetsk in good form

Shakhtar Donetsk have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Dynamo Kyiv and a 0–0 home draw with Zorya Luhansk. Sporting CP have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Casa Pia and a 2–1 home win over Maritimo.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 45%. Shakhtar Donetsk score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game, Sporting CP 1.8 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.5 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Sporting CP · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Sporting CP have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Shakhtar Donetsk — last game: Against Zorya Luhansk (0-0) they had 78% of the shots (14 to 4, on target 4-3) and 63% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 59% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Sporting CP — last game: Away to Casa Pia (2-0) they had 66% of the shots (23 to 12, on target 11-2) and 55% possession. From 11 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 13′. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 59% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.