QPR v Burnley: analysis and our pick

Burnley have a chance to respond

QPR have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Southampton and a 5–0 home win over Swansea. Burnley have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Portsmouth and a 1–4 away defeat at Lincoln.

The head-to-head favours Burnley

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for QPR, 1 draw, 3 for Burnley, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: QPR 0–5 Burnley (26 Apr 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 70%. QPR score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Burnley 1.6 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.4 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 85% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · QPR · 49%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 85%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: QPR have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

QPR — last game: Away to Southampton (1-4) they had 39% of the shots (12 to 19, on target 2-9) and 46% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 9 on target. 45′–60′: under 82% of the pressure → conceded on 55′. 60′–75′: under 80% of the pressure → conceded on 66′, scored on the break on 68′. 75′–90′: under 91% of the pressure → conceded on 90′. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 52% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Burnley — last game: Against Portsmouth (0-0) they had 78% of the shots (18 to 5, on target 4-0) and 52% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, faced no shots on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.38 → 2.10 (-11.8%, backed) · 2 (Burnley) 3.50 → 3.90 (+11.4%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.53 → 1.67 (+9.2%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.70 → 1.83 (+7.6%, drifting).