Preston v Sheffield Utd: analysis and our pick

Preston looking for a response

Preston have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Stoke City and a 1–1 home draw with West Brom. Sheffield Utd have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Wrexham and a 1–1 home draw with Derby.

The head-to-head favours Sheffield Utd

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Preston, 0 draws, 3 for Sheffield Utd, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Sheffield Utd 2–3 Preston (25 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Preston score 0.4 and concede 2.4 a game, Sheffield Utd 1.6 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.7 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 76% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Sheffield Utd · 54%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 50%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 76%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Sheffield Utd have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 50% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Preston — last game: Away to Stoke City (0-2) they had 14% of the shots (3 to 18, on target 0-6) and 40% possession. No shots on target, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 15′–30′: under 67% of the pressure → conceded on 29′. 30′–45′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 82% of the pressure → conceded on 53′. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 21% of the shots on target. They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 46% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Sheffield Utd — last game: Against Wrexham (1-0) they had 59% of the shots (13 to 9, on target 4-1) and 55% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.