Portsmouth v Swansea: analysis and our pick

Portsmouth in good form

Portsmouth have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Burnley and a 2–1 home win over Millwall. Swansea have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over Blackburn and a 0–5 away defeat at QPR.

The head-to-head favours Swansea

In the last 4 meetings: 1 win for Portsmouth, 1 draw, 2 for Swansea, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea (10 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. Portsmouth score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game, Swansea 1.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.4 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Portsmouth · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 59%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Portsmouth have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 59% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Portsmouth — last game: Away to Burnley (0-0) they had 22% of the shots (5 to 18, on target 0-4) and 48% possession. No shots on target, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 64% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Swansea — last game: Against Blackburn (4-0) they had 74% of the shots (20 to 7, on target 9-2) and 68% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 11′. 15′–30′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 32′, 36′. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.