Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart: analysis and our pick

Galatasaray in good form

Galatasaray have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–0 away win at Konyaspor and a 2–1 home win over Fenerbahce. VfB Stuttgart have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–2 away win at Bayer Leverkusen and a 1–0 away win at SC Paderborn 07.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 45%. Galatasaray score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game, VfB Stuttgart 1.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.9 = 3.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 88% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · VfB Stuttgart · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 68%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 88%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: VfB Stuttgart have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 68% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Galatasaray — last game: Away to Konyaspor (4-0) they had 67% of the shots (14 to 7, on target 8-1) and 53% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 12′. 30′–45′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 68% of the pressure → goal on 49′, 55′. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. VfB Stuttgart — last game: Away to Bayer Leverkusen (4-2) they had 38% of the shots (15 to 24, on target 7-8) and 36% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.