Derby v Norwich: analysis and our pick

Derby looking for a response

Derby have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Millwall and a 1–1 away draw with Sheffield Utd. Norwich have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Watford and a 3–1 away win at Charlton.

The head-to-head favours Norwich

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Derby, 1 draw, 3 for Norwich, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Norwich 2–1 Derby (21 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 65%. Derby score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game, Norwich 1.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.6 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Norwich · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Norwich have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Derby — last game: Away to Millwall (1-4) they had 37% of the shots (13 to 22, on target 4-9) and 44% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 9 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 3′, 10′. 15′–30′: under 78% of the pressure → conceded on 17′. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 19% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 34% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Norwich — last game: Against Watford (3-2) they had 64% of the shots (14 to 8, on target 5-5) and 59% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 85% of the pressure → goal on 53′. 60′–75′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → goal on 62′, 71′. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.