Bodo/Glimt v Lille: analysis and our pick

Bodo/Glimt in good form

Bodo/Glimt have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Viking and a 0–1 home defeat to Valerenga. Lille have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Lens and a 1–1 away draw with Monaco.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Bodo/Glimt score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Lille 1.0 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.6 = 3.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Bodo/Glimt · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 72%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Bodo/Glimt have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 72% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bodo/Glimt — last game: Against Viking (3-2) they had 41% of the shots (12 to 17, on target 3-5) and 40% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 🟥 Red card on 45′ for Viking (Morten Jensen): the opponent played with ten for ~45 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 🟥 Red card on 45′ for Bodo/Glimt (Kjetil Knutsen): they played with ten for ~45 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Lille — last game: Against Lens (1-0) they had 76% of the shots (16 to 5, on target 7-3) and 62% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 77% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Lille) 3.90 → 4.75 (+21.8%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.91 → 2.20 (+15.2%, drifting) · 1 (Bodo/Glimt) 1.83 → 1.65 (-9.8%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.25 → 1.18 (-5.6%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.