Blackburn v Stoke City: analysis and our pick

Blackburn in good form

Blackburn have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–4 away defeat at Swansea and a 2–0 home win over Wrexham. Stoke City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Preston and a 0–0 home draw with Bristol City.

The head-to-head favours Stoke City

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Blackburn, 2 draws, 2 for Stoke City, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Stoke City 1–1 Blackburn (11 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Blackburn score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Stoke City 1.4 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Blackburn · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Blackburn have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Blackburn — last game: Away to Swansea (0-4) they had 26% of the shots (7 to 20, on target 2-9) and 32% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 4 from 9 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 11′. 15′–30′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 32′, 36′. Over the last 5 they averaged 37% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Stoke City — last game: Against Preston (2-0) they had 86% of the shots (18 to 3, on target 6-0) and 60% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, faced no shots on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → goal on 29′. 30′–45′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → goal on 53′. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.