Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich: analysis and our pick

Atletico Madrid in good form

Atletico Madrid have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Levante and a 1–0 home win over Deportivo La Coruna. Bayern Munich have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Borussia Dortmund and a 6–1 home win over 1. FC Magdeburg.

The head-to-head favours Bayern Munich

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Atletico Madrid, 1 draw, 3 for Bayern Munich, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Atletico Madrid 1–1 Bayern Munich (1 Dec 2020).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 60%. Atletico Madrid score 1.4 and concede 0.2 a game, Bayern Munich 3.8 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.8 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 85% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Bayern Munich · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 85%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Bayern Munich have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Atletico Madrid — last game: Away to Levante (2-0) they had 33% of the shots (10 to 20, on target 5-4) and 54% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 120% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 6% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Bayern Munich — last game: Against Borussia Dortmund (2-2) they had 66% of the shots (23 to 12, on target 5-6) and 56% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → goal on 38′. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 6.00 → 5.00 (-16.7%, backed) · Under 2.5 3.00 → 2.50 (-16.7%, backed) · Over 3.5 2.00 → 2.30 (+15%, drifting) · Not both to score 3.00 → 2.62 (-12.7%, backed).